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E-GOLD GROWTH: QUICK & DIRTY
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mailto: J-MAN The following is based on research by Viking Coder posted to the e-gold list -- Subscribe: subscribe-e-gold-list@talk.e-gold.com An e-gold velocity historical data point. http://www.mail-archive.com/e-gold-list@talk.e-gold.com/msg02528. html 9 Jun 1999 daily transaction volume - $6,700 Current e-gold stats: http://www.e-gold.com/stats.html We'll start with known quantities. E-gold in circulation - 44,475.17 oz. gold ($11.7 million) total - 46,400.00 oz. gold ($12.2 million) Daily transaction volume - 5700 oz. gold ($1.5 million) This works out to 225x in 20 months or 31%/month growth. If this growth rate continues, e-gold will start surpassing various national currencies during Summer 2003. Now on to the mathematical analysis... The GDP isn't the same as the transaction volume. The GDP is the amount of official/logged transactions, i.e. retail, etc... However, we can figure out the neccesary transaction volumes given two assumptions. - The correlation between circulation volume and transaction volume is the same for all currencies. - The correlation between GDP and transaction volume is the same for all currencies. (This isn't true, but we something to work with) We know the circulation of AUG & USD, the AUG transaction volume, and the USD GDP. This gives us...
The ten smallest GDPs for countries that have their own currency: STD Dobra (S“o TomÈ) - $164 millionTOP Pa'anga (Tonga) - $232 million VUV Vatu (Vanuatu) - $240 million WST Tala (Samoa) - $470 million MVR Maldivian Rufiyaa (Maldives) - $500 million DJF Djibouti Franc (Djibouti) - $530 million SCR Seychelles Rupee (Seychelles) - $550 million CVE Cape Verdean Escudo (Cape Verde) - $581 million BZD Belize Dollar (Belize) - $700 million SBD Solomon Islands Dollar - $1.15 billion (Solomon Islands) Which gives us the daily transaction volumes for the above ten currencies: STD (Dobra) - $1.35 millionTOP (Pa'anga) - $1.9 million VUV (Vatu) - $1.97 million WST (Tala) - $3.86 million MVR (Maldivian Rufiyaa) - $4.11 million DJF (Djibouti Franc) - $4.36 million SCR (Seychelles Rupee) - $4.52 million CVE (Cape Verdean Escudo) - $4.78 million BZD (Belize Dollar) - $5.75 million SBD (Solomon Islands Dollar) - $9.45 million Using the given e-gold growth rate, we can determine when e-gold's transaction volume will exceed the listed currencies' transaction volume: STD (Dobra) - Already exceededTOP (Pa'anga) - April, 2001 VUV (Vatu) - April, 2001 WST (Tala) - August, 2001 MVR (Maldivian Rufiyaa) - August, 2001 DJF (Djibouti Franc) - August, 2001 SCR (Seychelles Rupee) - September, 2001 CVE (Cape Verdean Escudo) - September, 2001 BVD (Belize Dollar) - October, 2001 SBD (Solomon Islands Dollar) - November, 2001 He goes on to show that the Swiss Franc (CHF) volume will be exceeded in May 2003, the Australian Dollar (AUD) in July 2003, the Russian Ruble (RUB) in August 2003, and Canadian Dollar (CAD) September 2003.
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